INFORME-ALERTA N°11-2018 VALIDO PARA LOS MESES DE JUNIO A NOVIEMBRE 2018

Observatorio Meteorológico Salsipuedes

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TIPO DE ALERTA O INFORME ESPECIAL :

INFORME ESPECIAL N°11: VALIDO PARA LOS MESES DE JUNIO-JULIO-AGOSTO-SEPTIEMBRE -OCTUBRE Y NOVIEMBRE 2018

ANALISIS A MEDIANO PLAZO TRIMESTRAL INVIERNO 2018 Y PARTE DE LA PRIMAVERA 2018

La situación actual de esta NEUTRALIDAD nos permite ver con claridad para este invierno y comienzo de la primavera 2018 una meseta importante, con anomalías especialmente en el mes de septiembre y octubre 2018, donde se define claramente el recorrido de las corrientes oceánicas, su calentamiento global y principalmente las temperaturas, se puede apreciar las corrientes marinas como así su circulación de masa de aire con importantes movimientos a nivel medio de la atmosfera. Motiva que desde la segunda quincena de octubre y comienzo de Noviembre tendremos el periodo estival de lluvias, un poco más atrasado con respecto al año anterior que fue a partir del 19 de septiembre 2017. Se prevé heladas tardías hasta comienzos de noviembre 2018 siendo las precipitaciones en la zona núcleo como así el NOA será por debajo de la media normal para finales del mes de noviembre, si bien existen baches desde septiembre a noviembre especialmente en el sector Centro Norte y NO del país. Las temperaturas mínimas normales para el periodo invierno y primavera serán con promedios de heladas entre 28 a 48 días en la región Centro, Norte y Este del país entre 12 a 29 días. Las precipitaciones más destacadas serán sobre el sector Norte y Centro  patagónico, parte de Cuyo, y el resto comienza su periodos de precipitaciones mitad o al final de noviembre, diciembre en adelante en forma gradual, esto significa que las precipitaciones medias sobre el área Central y NEA serán a partir del mes de diciembre en adelante con valores normales, si bien las corrientes ascendentes serán desde el sector de las Sierras y la Cordillera, se verán afectadas por vientos de regular a moderada intensidad con valores promedio de 15 a 23km/h del sector NE. Los frentes fríos en primavera para este año estarán presentes cada 5 a 10 días con formación de tormentas moderadas, y en particular la heliofania efectiva para este año con cielo mayormente cubierto con nubosidad media y alta. Para el mes de enero y febrero 2019 las temperaturas de los océanos cerca del continente, más las del sector del Atlántico tendremos algunos eventos extraordinarios sobre el sector de Cuyo, el Litoral argentino y parte del Norte patagónico, con episodios de precipitaciones que pueden ser superior a la media con valores entre 125mm a 215mm, con respecto a este año en particular lo que fue el mes de febrero y marzo 2018. Para el año próximo atraviesa una NEUTRALIDAD MODERADA con valores por encima de la media normal en un 25 a 39%. Pudiendo ser importantes precipitaciones para el mes de Marzo segunda quincena, como así también el mes de abril y mayo 2019. Valores de tres dígitos especialmente el NOA , NEA y Centro, con anegamientos importantes .-

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